Presidential Election Update

Key developments to watch after Joe Biden’s projected win

“It’s a time for America to unite. And to heal.” – Joe Biden

What happened over the weekend?

This weekend Joseph ’Joe’ Biden Jr. was projected to win the United States presidential election against sitting President Donald Trump. The electoral college will convene on December 14th, at which point Biden’s victory will likely be confirmed.

The outcome of this presidential election has been anxiously awaited by the international community and the EU, especially due to the significant impact of America’s administration on transatlantic relations. Experts expect the changeover from Trump to Biden to be one of the starkest policy reversals in U.S. history.

Many historic firsts were also recorded during this race, such as the election of Kamala Harris, America’s first female vice president and the first vice president of color. This election had many wins for women and minorities, including New Mexico’s election of all women of color to the House. The Republican Party elected more female legislators than ever before in their history, and more openly LGBTQ+ candidates ran and won than ever before. Delaware elected America’s first transgender state senator, Sarah McBride.

What happens next?

President Trump has not conceded to Biden as of this message send out. Although concession is not required by law, it is traditionally symbolic of a peaceful transition of power. The Trump campaign has called for vote recounts in multiple states, each of which have their own laws. The campaign has also started to file lawsuits in multiple states.

Based on current vote counts, it is improbable that Trump will turn the election. However, the official outcome of the election will not be known until the electoral college convenes on December 14th and these results are confirmed in the Senate on January 5th.

Biden on trade – What can we expect?

While Joe Biden is likely to focus on domestic matters during his first year as president, there are international matters high on the agenda for the new administration:

• Section 232 tariffs: We see the threat of Section 232 tariffs on autos being taken off the table. We also expect resolution of the Large Civil Aircraft dispute, as well as the potential for reducing or eliminating Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum.
• Paris Agreement and negotiation: Expect the United States to return to the Paris Agreement and be more active in OECD negotiations on digital taxation. There may be more cooperation on WTO and WHO reform.A U.S. return to the Paris Agreement, and its own possible consideration of some sort of carbon border adjustment, may offer an opportunity for greater transatlantic partnership to address climate change.
• U.S.-China relations: There may be effort on collaboration to address shared global challenges, such as disputes with China. We hope to see cooperative discussion around digital economy topics, such as the Digital Service Tax and digital sovereignty.
• Trade agreement: Given an anticipated emphasis on the U.S. domestic policy agenda, we see no prospect for a comprehensive trade agreement, and significant disagreements over Europe’s regulatory policy direction will remain.
• Immigration policy: We also anticipate positive movement on immigration issues. This could be good news for our members looking to bring personnel into the U.S. for either short- or long-term stays. On immigration, Biden has pledged to reverse the immigration ban from Muslim-majority countries and reinstate the DACA program.

What about domestic policies in the U.S.?

We expect Biden to follow through on pledges to approach the fight against Covid-19 in the United States dramatically different than President Trump. He has immediately set up a coronavirus task force, and we expect to hear more on how business and citizens will be affected by policy changes related to the pandemic.

Biden also intends to reverse Trump’s rollback of 100 public health and environmental rules that the Obama administration put in place.

What about Congress?

Democrats currently have a slim majority in the House of Representatives, and the Senate race remains unclear.

Election results will significantly impact the work of Congress, where House Democrats have spent much of their time investigating the Trump administration since midterm elections in 2018. The narrow majority means that Democrats will struggle to push through with Biden’s entire agenda.

On January 5th, there will be two runoff elections in Georgia. Democrats would need to win both to take back control from Republicans in the Senate. If control remains with Republicans, President Biden may have a difficult time with Cabinet appointments and other major legislation he intends to pass.

Mitch McConnell, current Senate Majority Leader, has publicly stated in previous administrations that he would, in principle, block anything that a Democratic president proposes. If he continues in this post, we may see more of the same. Biden has previously said that he would repeal Republican-passed tax cuts from 2017 and repeal liability protections for gun manufacturers. These two efforts would likely be slow-moving due to a divided Congress.

Expect a further update in January, 2021.

Reminder: Future Finland event is next Tuesday, November 17!

Amcham and Business Finland have teamed up for the largest ever study about Finland as a business location at the executive level. What do 400 company leaders think of Finland’s business environment, and what constructive actions do they expect from the government? You have been chosen to attend the exclusive virtual launch of Finland as a Business Location 2020 barometer results, including an analysis overview and high-level panel discussion.

Member of the European Parliament Miapetra Kumpula, Member of Parliament Elina Lepomäki, and senior executives will come together to tackle key issues head on. Attracting more investments and securing global competitiveness are critical to Finland’s future economy and society. Join us to stay informed and discover how we can progress towards the ideal business location.

Agenda:

• Welcome – Alexandra Pasternak-Jackson, CEO, Amcham Finland
• Overview of study results – Antti Aumo, Executive Director, Invest in Finland
• Barometer – Results & Discussion
  • Miapetra Kumpula-Natri, Member of the European Parliament
  • Elina Lepomäki, Member of Parliament, The National Coalition Party Kokoomus
  • Patricia Drake, Managing Director, MSD Finland
  • Tor Stendahl, General Manager Nordic & Country Manager Finland, BASF Finland